国际观点:Java会灭亡吗（Will Java Die？）

2007.08.30  来自：CSDN　  玉磊 

【CSDN 编译】宇宙中的巨大云团处会有许多新星诞生，它们中有的有幸接触到临近物质，然后核内开始熔化聚合；而有些却没有接触到临近物质也无法熔化聚合。对于前者，他们聚合大量物质成为明亮的星星，星光闪耀，而后者很快衰落黯淡。但是经过一段时间明星也终将耗尽聚合物质而灭亡。

编程语言就像星星一样，没有一种语言可以永远星光闪耀，Java也不例外。虽然Java语言如此，但Java 平台却另当别论。今天即使Java语言出现下降的趋势，Java平台也仍比任何时候都增长得快。

       一次我在与DZone其他<nobr>技术</nobr>人员讨论技术问题的时候，我无意间表达了Java正处在下滑趋势的说法。这是有许多前车之鉴的，强大的C在被C++和<nobr>后来</nobr>的Java挤下神坛之前也不过持续红火了20年多的时间。Java刚进入第二个十年，我们却已经看到了岁月沧桑和用户不满的痕迹。

那么Java会灭亡吗（Will Java Die？）

       就在这时，Rick Ross告诉我“Java并不仅是语言，是平台。”他说的很正确，Java远不单是语法定义的语言。我们已经看到很多语言扩展或者专门运行在JVM上。JRuby和Scala 的成就已表明即使没有Java语法甚至没有Java库，平台仍可继续生存。

       在我看来Java今天达到的高度前所未有，然而我们看到Java平台的流行更在语言之上。所以Java的情形并不同于我们看到的其他语言的下场。那么是否Java自身会衰落却依然在平台中对其他语言扮演支持角色呢？

       这个问题我只能说我也不知道。反正我会支持Java，即使<nobr>地球</nobr>上只有三<nobr>个人用</nobr>它，我也是这三个人中的一个。在我看来，Java避免迷失在时间长河中的唯一方法就是，置于运行在JVM上的一种语言或多种语言中，而且能够与Java的库互操作。

       时间将证明一切。【编译：玉磊】

本为原作者为Daniel Spiewak，Javalobby 编辑，也是资深Java开发者和系统管理员，在该领域已有七年以上开发经验，擅长UI设计和P2P对等网络。

原文如下：

This week, Daniel discusses the topic of Java's longev<nobr>it</nobr>y. Languages are sort of like stars (the cosmic kind. Not the hollywood kind). There are giant clouds where new stars are born. Some of them will be fortunate enough to reach critical mass, and fusion will start in their cores. Others will never gain enough mass for fusion to start. For the ones that do gain critical mass, they shine very brightly... For a period of time. but eventually, they begin to die as they run out of fusion material. Like stars, no programing language can be expected to shine brightly forever.  We cannot expect that Java will be any different. Not Java the language that is. But the story is different for the Java platform. Even as interest in the Java language declines, the Java platform is growing faster than ever. So what does the future of Java really look like? - Mike, Managing Editor <script><!----></script>

Will Java Die?

I seem to be living a theme this week, constantly running into articles and/or discussions regarding the future of Java.  Most of these fall into one of two camps:

• There's the "Java's doomed everyone panic camp"
• …and there's the rose-colored "Java will live forever everyone sing"

This theme actually even carried over into a conversation I was having with the rest of the team here at DZone.  We were discussing various technologies, and I casually voiced the opinion that Java is on the decline.  Of course we've seen it before with other languages.  Even the mighty C only lasted 20-odd years before being eclipsed by C++ and (shortly thereafter) Java.  Java's just barely into its second decade and already we're seeing signs of age and dissatisfaction amongst its patrons.

I was just about to launch into a discourse on modern language features and what developers expect from a 21st century language, when Rick Ross cut across me with the statement that "Java isn't just a language, it's a platform."  Considering the emphasis which has been put on this little factoid over the last few months, I'm surprised I had forgotten it.  He's right; Java is much more than just the syntax which defines it.  We've already seen dozens of languages either ported to or written specifically to run on the JVM.  After all, VMs are hard to write, why not use someone else's?  Efforts like JRuby and Scala show that regardless of the popularity of the Java syntax or even the underlying libraries, the platform itself will live on.  But will it carry the language along with it? <script><!----></script>

What we're seeing today in Java is unprecedented (to my knowledge).  We're beginning to reach a point where the popularity of the underlying platform is overarching the popularity of the language which necessitated it in the first place.  This means that the situation is somewhat different from the other "language death scenes" we've witnessed over the past three decades.  Could it be that Java itself may decline, but remain significant in a supporting role for other languages built on the platform?

At this point, I'd have to say that I really don't know.  I've got to be one of three people left on earth who actually likes the Java syntax.  I think it's elegant, expressive and pleasantly restrictive.  However, even I'm sorely tempted by the whiles of hybrid functional-object oriented paradigms and extreme meta-programming.  Really, the only way Java can hope to avoid fading into the mists of time may be in one (or more) of the languages designed to run on the JVM and interoperate with its libraries.  Time will tell.